Recommended Model Selection
BTTS
58.2% confidence
Configured 55.0% gate
BTTS cleared the configured threshold with 58.2% calibrated confidence and +3.2 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 58.232249814506600:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 58.963491667025600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Pavia
Recent Form:
L
L
D
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
✈️ Sant'Angelo
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
Head-to-Head Track Record
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: