Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
59.0% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 59.0% calibrated confidence and +1.0 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 58.9600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 58.620617880866500:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 America RN
Recent Form:
L
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.67
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.33
Clean Sheet Frequency:
33.300000000000004:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
66.7:F0%
✈️ Piaui
Recent Form:
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: