Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
72.9% confidence
Tuned 64.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 72.9% calibrated confidence and +8.9 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 36.4400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 37.3400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 36.1500:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 72.9300:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 72.9300:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Ethio Electric
Recent Form:
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
✈️ Adama City
Recent Form:
W
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.33
Clean Sheet Frequency:
33.300000000000004:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
33.300000000000004:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: