Recommended Model Selection
Away Win
89.2% confidence
Tuned 84.0% gate
Away Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +5.2 pts above the tuned gate at 89.2%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 70.0000:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 70.1000:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 65.3600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 89.0900:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 89.1700:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 89.1700:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Croatia
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
4.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Iceland
Recent Form:
D
D
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
100:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: