Recommended Model Selection
Away Win
85.7% confidence
Tuned 84.0% gate
Away Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +1.7 pts above the tuned gate at 85.7%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 65.3800:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 65.3600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 65.3600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 85.8000:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 89.1700:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 85.7200:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Romania
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
3.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
✈️ Norway
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: