Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
69.4% confidence
Tuned 64.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 69.4% calibrated confidence and +5.4 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 31.798985171025300:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 32.301457874973200:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 31.8000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 69.411517932714400:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 69.411517932714400:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 69.4100:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.5900:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 El-Entag El-Harby
Recent Form:
L
L
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ La Viena
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: