Recommended Model Selection
Draw
44.2% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 44.2% calibrated confidence and +14.2 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 43.2400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 44.1700:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 44.1700:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 44.170613760139700:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 44.1700:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 67.5500:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 67.436102084699200:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 67.4400:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Sochaux
Recent Form:
D
D
W
W
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Boulogne
Recent Form:
D
D
D
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: