Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
85.8% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 85.8% calibrated confidence and +27.8 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 85.787014592292500:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 88.0600:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Holywell Town
Recent Form:
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
✈️ The New Saints
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
3.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: