Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
71.1% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 71.1% calibrated confidence and +13.1 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 63.337646371418300:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 69.538057876866500:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 59.0100:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 66.10945679425900:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 71.064132656894900:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Brentford
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Derby County
Recent Form:
L
L
W
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: