Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
60.8% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 60.8% calibrated confidence and +2.8 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 65.3700:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 65.365897349634700:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 60.8400:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 60.835863780698700:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Holyhead Hotspur
Recent Form:
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
✈️ Caersws
Recent Form:
W
W
W
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
80:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: