Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
76.9% confidence
Tuned 64.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 76.9% calibrated confidence and +12.9 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 39.4800:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 40.1000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 39.3400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 39.476715595732500:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 76.9100:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 76.8500:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 76.850984807037600:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 CA Bizertin
Recent Form:
L
L
D
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
✈️ US Monastir
Recent Form:
W
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.50
Clean Sheet Frequency:
50:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
50:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: