Recommended Model Selection
Draw
32.3% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 32.3% calibrated confidence and +2.3 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.9100:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.910312461321500:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 32.3400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 32.344581315719700:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 60.4000:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 60.396384215250200:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Sampaio Correa RJ
Recent Form:
W
W
D
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.75
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.50
Clean Sheet Frequency:
50:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
25:F0%
✈️ Madureira
Recent Form:
L
L
D
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: