Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
58.2% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 58.2% calibrated confidence and +0.2 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 55.7500:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 55.753167962547500:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 32.7800:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 32.783480102629200:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 58.186807537476600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 58.1900:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Nova Iguacu
Recent Form:
L
L
L
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ Volta Redonda
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: