Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
75.2% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 75.2% calibrated confidence and +17.2 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 66.3000:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 59.8200:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 66.298594791326900:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 62.2000:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 75.1900:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 75.193137921653400:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 75.0600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 59.0100:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 75.2900:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Ajax
Recent Form:
D
D
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
3.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
✈️ NEC Nijmegen
Recent Form:
D
L
W
D
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: