Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
67.8% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 67.8% calibrated confidence and +9.8 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 67.3400:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 68.1900:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 68.1900:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 68.187295477520300:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 67.786148264498700:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.8400:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 67.7900:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 67.7900:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Real Madrid
Recent Form:
L
L
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
✈️ Villarreal
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: