Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
68.1% confidence
Tuned 64.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 68.1% calibrated confidence and +4.1 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.7400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.742207491994700:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 36.4200:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.7400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.7400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.094454705199200:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.0900:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.0900:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Manta
Recent Form:
W
W
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ Tecnico Universitario
Recent Form:
L
W
L
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: