Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
69.0% confidence
Tuned 66.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 69.0% calibrated confidence and +3.0 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 70.7100:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.9500:F1%
Gate: 66:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Defensores de Belgrano
Recent Form:
D
W
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ Acassuso
Recent Form:
L
L
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: