Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
67.6% confidence
Tuned 66.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 67.6% calibrated confidence and +1.6 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 40.6300:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 40.905264499894800:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 67.5800:F1%
Gate: 66:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 67.581316528979400:F1%
Gate: 66:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Castro Daire
Recent Form:
W
W
L
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
✈️ Salgueiros
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
100:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: