Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
73.8% confidence
Tuned 66.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 73.8% calibrated confidence and +7.8 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.8900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.8900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 34.2400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.721609213670100:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 73.8000:F1%
Gate: 66:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 73.8000:F1%
Gate: 66:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 73.803744205558600:F1%
Gate: 66:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Sidama Bunna
Recent Form:
D
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.33
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.33
Clean Sheet Frequency:
66.7:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
✈️ Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Recent Form:
D
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.67
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.33
Clean Sheet Frequency:
33.300000000000004:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
33.300000000000004:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: