Recommended Model Selection
Home Win
71.8% confidence
Configured 68.0% gate
Home Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +3.8 pts above the configured gate at 71.8%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 66.1500:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 60.1700:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 66.1500:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 67.4500:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 72.6000:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 72.6000:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 71.8200:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Sparta Prague
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
3.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ Pardubice
Recent Form:
D
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
5.50
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.25
Clean Sheet Frequency:
25:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
75:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: