Recommended Model Selection
Draw
30.1% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 30.1% calibrated confidence and +0.1 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 56.9700:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 57.04321840098400:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 36.0900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 30.1200:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 30.1200:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 30.122915203199300:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Modena
Recent Form:
W
W
D
D
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
✈️ Hellas Verona
Recent Form:
W
W
D
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: