Recommended Model Selection
Draw
35.6% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 35.6% calibrated confidence and +5.6 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 33.5600:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 33.6000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 33.6000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.5800:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.5800:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Nautico
Recent Form:
L
L
L
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ Vila Nova
Recent Form:
D
L
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.50
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
25:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
25:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: