Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
71.1% confidence
Tuned 66.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 71.1% calibrated confidence and +5.1 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 41.3000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 41.3000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 41.3000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 41.300318633927800:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 40.6500:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 71.104694008737800:F1%
Gate: 66:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 71.8900:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 71.1000:F1%
Gate: 66:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 71.1000:F1%
Gate: 66:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 71.1000:F1%
Gate: 66:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 San Lorenzo
Recent Form:
D
D
D
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
✈️ Deportivo Riestra
Recent Form:
D
D
D
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: