Recommended Model Selection
Home Win
80.6% confidence
Configured 68.0% gate
Home Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +12.6 pts above the configured gate at 80.6%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.7200:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 70.8300:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 70.8300:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 70.8300:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 70.829246468373100:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.6100:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 81.0700:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 81.0700:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.6100:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Benfica
Recent Form:
L
L
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Vitoria Guimaraes
Recent Form:
D
D
L
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: