Recommended Model Selection
Home Win
80.6% confidence
Configured 68.0% gate
Home Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +12.6 pts above the configured gate at 80.6%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 65.8200:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 65.7100:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 65.7100:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.6100:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.5700:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.5700:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Al-Nassr
Recent Form:
W
W
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Neftchi Fergona
Recent Form:
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: