Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
65.6% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 65.6% calibrated confidence and +7.6 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 65.1300:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 65.6300:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 65.6300:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 65.6300:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 86.4700:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 86.1000:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 86.0500:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 86.0500:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Gremio Novorizontino
Recent Form:
W
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.75
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
25:F0%
✈️ Ponte Preta
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: