Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
75.9% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 75.9% calibrated confidence and +17.9 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 64.2400:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 69.4700:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 64.2400:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 69.470832442903100:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 63.7600:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 75.885729754957600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 71.2100:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 71.1100:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 71.1100:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 75.8900:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Bournemouth
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Plymouth Argyle
Recent Form:
W
L
W
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: