Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
60.2% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 60.2% calibrated confidence and +2.2 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 59.9700:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 60.1600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 60.1600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 87.4800:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 87.5300:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 87.5300:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Iceland
Recent Form:
D
D
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
100:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
✈️ Croatia
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
4.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: