Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
61.3% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 61.3% calibrated confidence and +3.3 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.1800:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.2400:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.2400:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 31.0400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 30.9400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 30.9400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.2800:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.3100:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.3100:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Stoke City
Recent Form:
D
W
W
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Middlesbrough
Recent Form:
W
W
D
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: