Recommended Model Selection
Draw
33.3% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 33.3% calibrated confidence and +3.3 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 57.9000:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 57.9000:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.316526110460700:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.316526110460700:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 33.256493855239900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 33.256493855239900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Penafiel
Recent Form:
L
L
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
✈️ Benfica
Recent Form:
W
W
L
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: