Recommended Model Selection
Away Win
84.5% confidence
Tuned 84.0% gate
Away Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +0.5 pts above the tuned gate at 84.5%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 84.5000:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Universitario de Deportes
Recent Form:
D
W
W
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
✈️ Palmeiras
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: