Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
79.3% confidence
Tuned 64.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 79.3% calibrated confidence and +15.3 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 40.05166005539900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 40.0500:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 39.9500:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 40.05166005539900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 78.390429205600800:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 78.3900:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 79.349392311651900:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Ethio Electric
Recent Form:
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
✈️ Negele Arsi Ketema
Recent Form:
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: