Recommended Model Selection
Draw
31.1% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 31.1% calibrated confidence and +1.1 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 31.054892424824200:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 59.0200:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 59.0400:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 59.0400:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 59.0400:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 59.043960603135200:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Fortuna Koln
Recent Form:
L
L
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
✈️ Stuttgart II
Recent Form:
W
W
D
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: