Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
61.6% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 61.6% calibrated confidence and +3.6 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 56.7300:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 56.8500:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 56.847742623787800:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.6400:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.7100:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.639390448917700:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 59.0400:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Harborough Town
Recent Form:
L
L
W
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Spennymoor Town
Recent Form:
L
L
D
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: