Recommended Model Selection
Draw
34.9% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 34.9% calibrated confidence and +4.9 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 65.95228624360400:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.1200:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.1100:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 65.95228624360400:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 34.861009150823400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 34.8600:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 34.861009150823400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 34.8400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 34.8600:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Newcastle United
Recent Form:
W
D
W
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Aston Villa
Recent Form:
W
W
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
3.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: