Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
68.1% confidence
Tuned 64.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 68.1% calibrated confidence and +4.1 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.9500:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.9500:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 31.7600:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.9500:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 31.7900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.1300:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.1300:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.1300:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Tacuarembo
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ La Luz
Recent Form:
D
D
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
Head-to-Head Track Record
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: