Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
70.4% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 70.4% calibrated confidence and +12.4 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 70.402771318988400:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Fluminense
Recent Form:
L
L
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
✈️ Portuguesa RJ
Recent Form:
L
W
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.50
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.50
Clean Sheet Frequency:
50:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
25:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: