Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
58.4% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 58.4% calibrated confidence and +0.4 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 58.4400:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Union Berlin
Recent Form:
D
D
W
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
80:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
✈️ Nurnberg
Recent Form:
D
D
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: