Recommended Model Selection
Draw
35.7% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 35.7% calibrated confidence and +5.7 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 36.1700:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 34.2700:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 36.3600:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 34.5200:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 35.6800:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.0100:F1%
Gate: 64:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Sao Bernardo
Recent Form:
D
D
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
✈️ Criciuma
Recent Form:
W
W
W
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
Head-to-Head Track Record
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: