Recommended Model Selection
Away Win
89.7% confidence
Tuned 84.0% gate
Away Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +5.7 pts above the tuned gate at 89.7%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 89.1200:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 89.1800:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 89.6600:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 89.6600:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 89.6600:F1%
Gate: 84:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Mainz 05
Recent Form:
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
✈️ Wolfsburg
Recent Form:
W
W
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
3.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: