Recommended Model Selection
Home Win
68.9% confidence
Configured 68.0% gate
Home Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +0.9 pts above the configured gate at 68.9%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 59.2400:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 68.9300:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 69.5900:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Marquense
Recent Form:
D
D
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
✈️ Suchitepequez
Recent Form:
D
D
D
D
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: