Recommended Model Selection
Draw
32.6% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 32.6% calibrated confidence and +2.6 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 34.2300:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 32.6000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 32.6100:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Esenler Erokspor
Recent Form:
L
D
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.25
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.25
Clean Sheet Frequency:
25:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
25:F0%
✈️ Mardin 1969
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: