Recommended Model Selection
Draw
40.8% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 40.8% calibrated confidence and +10.8 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 39.5000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 41.7900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 40.8400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 42.6000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 37.4400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 79.1700:F1%
Gate: 69:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 72.5500:F1%
Gate: 69:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 78.7600:F1%
Gate: 69:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 78.3500:F1%
Gate: 69:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 San Telmo
Recent Form:
L
L
L
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ Defensores de Belgrano
Recent Form:
D
W
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: