Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
59.3% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 59.3% calibrated confidence and +1.3 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 56.7200:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 56.8800:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 59.3900:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 58.5000:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 59.3200:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Alvechurch
Recent Form:
D
D
D
D
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
✈️ Spalding United
Recent Form:
D
D
L
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
Head-to-Head Track Record
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: