Recommended Model Selection
Draw
33.5% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 33.5% calibrated confidence and +3.5 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 31.8300:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 31.8900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 31.8900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 33.4600:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Gillingham
Recent Form:
L
L
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
✈️ Port Vale
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
100:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: