Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
79.8% confidence
Tuned 69.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 79.8% calibrated confidence and +10.8 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 41.7000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 41.93213129084100:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 43.0200:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 40.211512209864200:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 79.61502833174100:F1%
Gate: 69:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 79.779118410883400:F1%
Gate: 69:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Ethio Electric
Recent Form:
D
D
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.50
Clean Sheet Frequency:
50:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
✈️ Sheger Ketema
Recent Form:
D
D
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
100:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: