Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
68.7% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 68.7% calibrated confidence and +10.7 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.6800:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.9900:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.99298250255100:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 69.1600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.7100:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 68.711824838208600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Coventry City
Recent Form:
L
L
L
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
✈️ Swansea City
Recent Form:
L
D
W
W
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
80:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: