Recommended Model Selection
Draw
43.6% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 43.6% calibrated confidence and +13.6 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 40.474206178541100:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 43.557006087512900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Motagua
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ Alajuelense
Recent Form:
W
W
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: