Recommended Model Selection
Home Win
72.1% confidence
Configured 68.0% gate
Home Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +4.1 pts above the configured gate at 72.1%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 56.2600:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.5000:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 72.0600:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Al Ittihad Ahli of Aleppo
Recent Form:
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.33
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.33
Clean Sheet Frequency:
66.7:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
33.300000000000004:F0%
✈️ Paro
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
4.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
80:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: