Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
77.8% confidence
Tuned 76.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 77.8% calibrated confidence and +1.8 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 58.779653260208700:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.5700:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.5700:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 77.784972520017900:F1%
Gate: 76:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 77.7800:F1%
Gate: 76:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 77.7800:F1%
Gate: 76:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 81.0200:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.8800:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.8800:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.8800:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.8800:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Manchester City
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
3.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
✈️ Stoke City
Recent Form:
D
W
W
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: